Chris Cillizza aponta, num interessante artigo no The Fix, as vulnerabilidades dos principais nomes referidos como candidatos republicanos à nomeação de 2012. A vida não será fácil para nenhum deles. Aqui ficam as análises de Palin, Romney, Huckabee e Gingrich, os mais famosos da lista (destaques a bold meus).
Sarah Palin - Sarah Palin
Running a presidential campaign takes a lot of leadership, political know-how and qualified staff. Basically nobody in Republican politics thinks the former Alaska governor has any of the three. Being somebody's vice president means all of those things are already taken care of when you show up. Palin doesn't have that luxury this time. She has an insular style and mistrusts the GOP establishment. It will be fascinating to see whether a tea party-like campaign with unknown operatives running the show can work on the national level, but lots of smart people are betting against it. "She seems to be running for celebrity, not the highest office in the land," said political analyst Stu Rothenberg of the Rothenberg Political Report.
Mitt Romney - Health care
The biggest loser when Congress passed its health care bill this year might have been the former Massachusetts governor. That's because the bill is terribly unpopular among conservatives, and it put Romney's own health care dealings in perspective for the whole country. The bill Romney passed has often been described as similar to the federal bill -- a characterization he has been and will continue to fight after he launches his campaign. Romney's opponents are already calling it "Romneycare."
Newt Gingrich - Baggage
It's hard to pick the one thing from Gingrich's past that may haunt him. It could be the messy divorce (one of two for him), his time as speaker (former party leaders generally have a hard time becoming president) or his actions since leaving office, which have included backing liberal Republican Dede Scozzafava in the New York special election a year ago. Gingrich has spent a lot of time in the limelight, and that creates enemies and liabilities. There's plenty to mine if his campaign starts to gain steam.
Mike Huckabee - His campaign (or lack thereof)
Huckabee is still polling at or near the top of the potential 2012 field. He's got a great platform with his Fox News show. And he's talking about running again. But he's still not being given much of a chance by smart political observers, mostly because he hasn't corrected his major flaw from 2008 -- his lack of a strong campaign operation. Part of that problem is because Huckabee isn't well-liked among establishment Republicans, and part of it is because it didn't seem like he was all that keen on running again. One GOP strategist said Huckabee is in the "worst position of the would-be 2008 nominees. His consultants, staff and advisers are talking to other candidates. His supporters in the states are being courted by other campaigns." That's not a good starting post, even if you are high in the polls.